ICO project log 05: timing
The hardest variable in a token launch is the one you can't control
Over the next 60 days, we’re documenting every step of what it looks like to launch a token the right way, in the United States, in 2026.
This is the project log: a written companion to each daily video. Short updates on what we’re working on, what’s blocking us, and what we’re learning along the way.
Day 6/60
Dennison is back in Brooklyn after the Salt Lake City sessions. Today’s episode is a solo check-in filmed on the street: no studio, no slides, just a direct take on the question every founder launching a token is asking right now.
The timing problem
When you’re planning a token launch, timing is probably the single most important variable that affects your raise. It’s also the one you have the least control over. You can build the best product, run the tightest process, have the strongest distribution plan: none of it matters if you launch into a dead market with no attention and no appetite.
Two ICOs launched recently on other platforms and the results were sobering. Hurupay ran a sale on MetaDAO and didn’t hit its minimum raise, so every dollar was refunded. Rainbow Wallet launched with Uniswap CCA and raised only a couple hundred thousand. These are real teams with real products, and the market still didn’t show up the way they needed it to.
That’s the reality of timing. You can do everything right and still get caught by conditions outside your control.
The contrarian case
Dennison’s take is counterintuitive: a down market might actually be the best time to launch. Not because prices are guaranteed to recover, but because launching from a low base means you’re building from the floor rather than falling from a peak. The projects that launch when things are quiet and survive have the strongest foundations when conditions eventually shift.
The broader point is that founders can’t time the market. The political environment is uncertain. Legislation is still unclear. Macro conditions are volatile. Waiting for the perfect window means waiting forever.
What founders can control is execution: the product, the distribution, the team’s ability to ship something people actually want. That’s the thing worth focusing on. Not the chart, not the macro, not the news cycle.
The throughline
This is something we think about constantly as we build toward our own launch. We’re not immune to the timing question. But the conclusion we keep landing on is the same one Dennison lays out in this episode: you focus on what you can control, you build something worth showing up for, and you give it your best shot. Trying to predict conditions you have zero influence over is a trap.
We’re documenting everything: the legal sequencing, the tax strategy, the custody setup, the go-to-market, all of it. If you’re building in crypto and thinking about launching a token, this is the playbook we wish existed.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this series constitutes financial advice, investment advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any token or security.